WSOP 2008

2008 WSOP Forecast, Day Fourty Two: Main Event Day 3

launchpoker — Thu, 10 Jul 2008 07:11:11 +0000

It's here - Day Three of the Main Event, the first day of the 2008 World Series of Poker's biggest showdown when all the players who have a shot at making the money are going to be in the same room. This is the first group that will even be able to consider actually cashing, as only the top 666 players will make the money. Jerry Yang is no longer a contender to defend his crown as he busted out on Day Two B, but other former champions might take a stab at it, such as Joe Hachem, nursing a medium stack as of the time of this writing. Today will be a day for the money-makers to clearly define their positions. By the end of the day a large percentage of the top chip stacks will more or less lock in their shot at making the money, unless they do something foolish. Speaking of Moneymaker, expect Chris to make a play for a big chip stack soon. Not that he hasn't been trying, of course, but Moneymaker's skills have only increased since he won the 2003 WSOP Main Event. He only has one bracelet now, but he does have four cashes at the WSOP. This event should be his fifth.

2008 WSOP Forecast, Day Fourty One: Steve Austin, Victor Ramdin Lead the Pack

launchpoker — Wed, 09 Jul 2008 07:59:11 +0000

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It is Day 41 of the 39th annual World Series of Poker, where the main event is currently running at the Rio All Suites hotel and casino in sweltering Las Vegas, Nevada. Today is the second "Day Two" of the main event, where the survivors from Day One C and Day One D will come together to see who joins the survivors of Day Two A on Day Three. It is not as confusing as it sounds. Today is a good day to take a look at the chip leaders, and point out which of them are pros. As this is supposedly "The Year of the Pro" we should see which professional players are making an early break to take the lead on the hunt for the more than $9 million that is up for grabs as the first-place prize. First prediction is that if current chip leader Steve Austin wins the entire event, he will be known as "The Nine Million Dollar Man." (Steve Austin is the main character's name from the 1970's Sci Fi show, "The Six Million Dollar Man.") Victor Ramdin is one of the top chip leaders, along with David Oppenheim. Alexander Kostritsyn and the Matador, Carlos Mortensen, also have plenty of chips. Should Carlos win it will be the first repeat victory of a former WSOP champion in quite some time. Second prediction is that we will see yet another international final table this year, whether or not it is filled with pros.

2008 WSOP Forecast, Day Fourty: Expect a New Name to Rise to the Top

launchpoker — Tue, 08 Jul 2008 07:32:34 +0000

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The Day Ones are all over, and all players got a day off on Monday, so today is the day that all the survivors get to start their quest in earnest, well, half of them, anyway. Today is Day 2A of the 2008 World Series of Poker Main Event (and day 40 overall of the WSOP) and those that did not bust out from Day 1A and Day 1B get to come back and try to survive. The 20,000 starting stack seems to benefit the pros for the most part, as the better players typically get more mileage out of deeper stack and longer levels. The general consensus from the pros is that it is "their year" - and all the early events seem to attest to that - but there can only be so many players moving on to the next level, and plenty of big time hotshots are hitting the rail regardless. Predictions for today are hard to come by, but here is one that seems to follow year after year in the main event: a new name will rise to the top as a chip leader, and this player will stay on top for a while. This "new guy" (or gal) will top the charts for a day or two and then self destruct, ala Dmitri Nobles. Remember this guy? Nobles had the entire WSOP talking about him. He was sassy, he was smart, he was a bit of a smart-mouth, but he started to believe his own hype. He got too comfortable and started to chase when he was on the losing side, and busted out. Look for another Nobles to come along today.

2008 WSOP Forecast, Day Thirty Five: Shuffle Up and Deal!

launchpoker — Thu, 03 Jul 2008 14:25:22 +0000

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Today is the day! One of many "the days" to come, actually. It is the 35th day of the 39th annual World Series of Poker, and the start of the most highly anticipated poker event of the year - the 2008 WSOP Main Event, the $10,000 World Championship No Limit Holdem tournament that every poker player in the world dreams of winning, at least once. The event has been on a steady rise in attendance and popularity since its inception in 1970 when only a handful played. In 2003 Chris Moneymaker won $2.5 million thanks to a $40 satellite that got him a seat in the event; since that moment the poker boom skyrocketed, and attendance and payouts went up along with it - until last year. Admittedly the attendance was still staggering when Jerry Yang won, but it was down from the year before when Jamie Gold pocketed $12 million (on paper, at least.) What is going to happen this year? So far the projections are around a $10 million payout for first place - somewhere between the 2006 and 2007 payouts - but it will be days before we know for sure. So, how to make predictions? Very carefully. We can, and will, predict that - based on the few attendance and prize pool records broken this year so far in specific events, and the generally excited - if a bit cautious - attitude towards poker in general and the WSOP in particular - that the attendance records will be like the projected first place prize - higher than last year, but lower than the year before. Shuffle up and deal!

2008 WSOP Forecast, Day Thirty Four: Ante Up for Africa Charity Event

launchpoker — Wed, 02 Jul 2008 07:34:17 +0000

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Day 34 of the 39th annual World Series of Poker is upon us, and while it isn't a bracelet event all eyes will be on the Ante Up for Africa Charity Event that will take place today. This $5,000 buy in event won't carry the prestige of "cashing" at the WSOP or winning a bracelet, but there will be plenty of railbirds wishing they had a seat and were in the action. Not only is the event being held for a great cause - raising money for two charities that will use the funds to help with the crisis in Darfur - but the tables will be choked with celebrity poker players and actors. The event is the brainchild of poker pro Annie Duke and actor Don Cheadle. Duke does her duty and gets pros like Chris Ferguson, Howard Lederer and Barry Greenstein to play and Cheadle grabs all his Ocean's Eleven buddies like Brad Pitt and George Clooney. So, who is going to win? Last year, in spite of all the pro players and movie stars who have trained like they were pro players, it came down to two armatures, Dan Shak and Brandon Moran, both of whom pledged their prize money to the cause. It will be impossible to predict a winner of this event, but we can predict a lot of money will be raised and a lot of fun will be had, all in the name of a great cause.

2008 WSOP Forecast, Day Thirty Three: World Championship Pot Limit Omaha

launchpoker — Tue, 01 Jul 2008 07:26:46 +0000

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It is Day 33 of the 39th annual World Series of Poker, and Las Vegas is still buzzing with the news that Scotty Nguyen won the $50,000 H.O.R.S.E. event - which some of us predicted! It was pretty scary while there was Erick Lindgren who was hodling the monster chip lead, but the Prince of Poker pulled it off. Today there will be a lot more buzzing as Josh Arieh takes down Event 50 - World Championship Pot Limit Omaha, which is our prediction. Event 50 wraps up today and, as of this writing, Josh has the massive chip lead. Josh started out as a semi pro player out of Atlanta and made a name for himself on the WPT circuit. He also hit hard and fast in WSOP events, and landed himself a sponsorship with Bodog Poker along with Evelyn Ng and David Williams. Arieh can be a real hot head at the table, but just the fact that he is chip leader in a game like PLO, Pot Limit Omaha, shows he knows how to curtail that temper when he has to. A game like Omaha already takes a twist of strategy that some young hotshot Holdem pros don't seem to comprehend, and Pot Limit means one can only push so hard. Interestingly, in spite of his short fuse, both of Arieh's bracelets come in limited events: his first was in 1999 and was a $3,000 Limit Holdem, and the second was in 2005 and was a $2,000 Pot Limit Omaha - nearly the same event he is playing in now.

2008 WSOP Forecast, Day Thirty Two: $1,500 No Limit Holdem

launchpoker — Mon, 30 Jun 2008 07:00:35 +0000

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Today is Day 32 of the 2008 World Series of Poker, and one $1,500 No Limit Holdem event will kick off while another $1,500 No Limit Holdem event will wrap up and declare a victor. We are more interested in projecting the winner at this point of the wrap up game since we don't know yet who will sign up to play in the other. The chip leaders in the Event 49 - $1,500 NLHE - include a couple of pros, which might seem counter to what we said in previous WSOP Forecasts that pros would avoid these small NLHE events. While it is true that many would, not all would, apparently. Among the chip leaders is young JC Tran, a player that was up and coming a few years ago and arrived at some point last year, when he won a World Poker Tour event. While he had other victories prior to this, none were in the WPT or WSOP. Last year he made three final tables at the World Poker Tour - a huge accomplishment all by itself. He made 7th at one, came in 2nd at the LA Poker Classic, and finally won his WPT event at the World Poker Challenge in Reno. This year alone he has cashed in five different WSOP events, and as he is the chip leader in this NLHE, we predict he will finally claim a WSOP bracelet for his own.

2008 WSOP Forecast, Day Thirty One: $50,000 H.O.R.S.E. Final Table

launchpoker — Sun, 29 Jun 2008 11:07:56 +0000

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Today the final 8 players will try to win the second most coveted poker prize of the WSOP: the gold bracelet that signifies a victory in the $50,000 H.O.R.S.E. event. Event 45, the "World Championship of H.O.R.S.E." as it is known, may come second overall in desirability for the average poker player, but for many pro players it is number one. Our prediction was Andy Bloch, the pro player who came in second during the first time the H.O.R.S.E. event was run in 2006, losing to the late Chip Reese. As of the time of this writing Bloch is not among the chip leaders but isn't out of the running, if he makes the final table, we say he is going to win it. Here's why. At the start of the season we said Andy was going to do well in every $10,000 event he played in, and so far he's done very well. He made it to 2nd in the Pot Limit event and pulled down over $250,000, and 7th in the Limit event and picked up over $80,000. In the $5,000 mixed event (that's No Limit and Limit in the same game) he made it to 16th. That ability to do well in different types of games and different limits is one of Andy's big strengths, and he very nearly won the H.O.R.S.E. event the first time. Should Boch fall before the final table? Our pick is Scotty Ngyuen, who is over due for another victory and very hungry for a win.

2008 WSOP Forecast, Day Thirty: Who Will Win Event 49?

launchpoker — Sat, 28 Jun 2008 18:34:38 +0000

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Today is not only Day 30 of the 39th annual World Series of Poker, it is also the kick off day for Event 49 - No Limit Holdem. This $1,500 buy in event is going to go under the radar for most people for a number of reasons. First, there are bigger price tag events, and more interesting game types (for many) going on all around it. But we shouldn't ignore this - or any - World Series of Poker event for a few reasons. First, any bracelet is a hard won victory. Sure, luck plays a part, but that is the case for every event. But most importantly another big pro in the making may come out of this event with two very important things to fuel his or her new career - money and attention. A player like Justin Bonomo. Now, this young man is already a pro of some standing. He has a nice website, he is sponsored by Bodog poker, and he has made a big name for himself playing online poker. Currently he is making a play for the $50,000 H.O.R.S.E. event, so if he continues to do well of course he won't be in Event 49. If he busts out, however, he may just take out his vengeance on the $1,500 NLHE crowd. Bonomo is just the kind of pro we are talking about here: bracelet of any kind would mean the world to his career. Of course the $50,000 H.O.R.S.E. event would pull more weight, but that event is very nearly like winning the Main Event. Barring either of those, a bracelet even in a $1,500 NLHE is the way to go.

2008 WSOP Forecast, Day Twenty Nine: $1000 Holdem w/Rebuys

launchpoker — Fri, 27 Jun 2008 07:53:31 +0000

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Today is Day 29 of the 2008 World Series of Poker and yet another No Limit Holdem game get started today. What we are going to look at, however, is the end of Event 44, the $1000 Holdem w/ Rebuys event. An event like this that utilizes rebuys, goes through a number of different stages. Any poker tournament will go through different stages but one with rebuys and add-ons has a little extra. The beginning stages of the tournament are typically marked with lots of action, lots of all in moves, and of course many players buy back in after they bust out. Once the smoke clears and the dust settles, however, players get down to business. Those that went up in the later stages of the tournament were the ones who are most able to effectively utilize the rebuys earlier - and then make proper adjustments later. At the final table there is one player who is more than likely going to take down the event - Mark Seif. Mark is a pro player that doesn't have a lot of name recognition, at least when you compare him to players like Chris Ferguson and Phil Hellmuth - but he certainly has been around. As commentator for the Professional Poker Tour and resident pro for online poker room Absolute Poker, Mark has been around the block. He has dozens of cashes in various events, many of them in the World Series of Poker and in the World Poker Tour, including two WSOP bracelets. Combine that with being one of the chip leaders of the final table and it looks like Mark is going to add another bracelet to his collection.

Today is Day 29 of the 2008 WSOP and yet another No Limit Holdem game get started today. What we are going to look at, however, is the end of Event 44, the $1000 Holdem w/ Rebuys event. An event like this that utilizes rebuys, goes through a number of different stages. Any poker tournament will go through different stages but one with rebuys and add-ons has a little extra. The beginning stages of the tournament are typically marked with lots of action, lots of all in moves, and of course many players buy back in after they bust out.

2008 WSOP Forecast, Day Twenty Eight: $5,000 No Limit Holdem Six Handed

launchpoker — Thu, 26 Jun 2008 07:39:34 +0000

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Today is Day 28 of the 39th annual World Series of Poker and once again two events are beginning today. Event 47, the $1,500 Seven-Card Stud High-Low and Event 46, the $5,000 No Limit Holdem Six Handed. The short handed game, or six handed as they call it at the World Series of Poker, is always an interesting game. Because there are fewer players at the table, it opens up the range of beginning hands - this allows for more action, which is appealing to amateur players who aren't necessarily used to patience required for other types of Holdem games. What is very interesting it is the makeup of the final tables of last year's 3 six handed games. In the $1,000 event, there were no big-name pros evident. In the $2,500 event the winner was Hoyt Corkins, and in the $5,000 event it was Bill Edler. So far this year we have had the $1,500 short handed Limit Holdem event, which is one of the few events won by an amateur. So what does that mean for today? Considering all the above, it would seem a good bet to say a pro is going to walk away with the bracelet for Event 46. And when you add in the pattern from last year, it's almost a certainty.

2008 WSOP Event 33 Winner Sebastian Ruthenberg

launchpoker — Wed, 25 Jun 2008 09:51:51 +0000

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When you are sitting at a World Series of Poker final table and look across the felt to see Chris "Jesus" Ferguson, Marcel Luske, and Annie Duke staring back at you, it is a foregone conclusion that you are going to have a very long day (or a very short one). Fortunately for Sebastian Ruthenberg he came into this final table with a substantial chip lead, and some carry over momentum from the previous day's play. Of course chip leads going into the last day have been no gauantee of victory this year, and Marcel Luske wasted no time in adding to his stack. Marcel drew the first blood of the day by scooping a big pot on Bob Beveridge and sending him away in 8th place. Bob had taken two big hits before this tournament ending hand, and those previous losses seemed to have knocked a lot of the fight out of him. Annie Duke is not the type to play second fiddle to anyone, and she wasn't about to let Luske chip-up without getting in on some of the action herself. Annie got into a betting war with Steve Sung. These two just fired every barrel they had at each other all the way down to the river. In the end Annie's pair of Kings held up, and when she caught the low on seventh, Sung was punted in 7th place. Alessio Isaia found himself all-in on fifth street against Sebastian Ruthenberg. Ruthenberg picked up an Ace on sixth street that not only improved his low, but gave him a pair of aces as well. Isaia couldn't compete at either end and was sent away with 6th place money. Annie Duke got her chips up against Ruthenberg and Ferguson. With Annie all in, and Chris betting on Fourth Street, Sebastian decided to live to fight another day, and folded his hand. Annie's tens were very little match against Ferguson's pair of kings. When he matched one of his jacks with another that showed up on seventh street, it was all over for Duke. Her plug was pulled in 5th place. Marcel Luske had been all in six times before his encounter with Bob Lauria. One more all in bet couldn't hurt, could it? Seven wasn't very lucky for Marcel, and while he may have won the award for best dressed player in the room, he wasn't going to win this tournament. Marcel Luske shook hands all around as he left the table in 4th place. Bob Lauria played the role of the "Little Engine Who Could" throughout the final table. He had started off with a stack that was far and away the smallest at the table, and most people expected he would be gone before the first cup of coffee was finished. As it turns out he made it all the way to third place where he was eliminated by Chris Ferguson and a timely full-house. It was an exciting hand though. Lauria was all in and ahead of Chris with three eights. Ferguson was working with a pair of Kings that suddenly became two-pair when a ten was dealt from the deck on Fifth Street, matching one he already had. On Seventh Street the third ten appeared and Bob Lauria's day was done. Considering where he started the day, third place was a monumental victory and a testament to his play. Ferguson started heads up play with a modest chip lead on Sebastian Ruthenberg. It was Chris's 1,600,000 to Sebastian's 1,150,000. Chris was by far the sentimental favorite, in some cases for no other reason than he was the only one of the two remaining players that a lot of people could recognize. The final three hours of the tournament was a conservative affair with both players patiently waiting for big hands, and springing to life when they got one. Lead changes were the order of the day until Ruthenberg hit three big hands consecutively. He took the chip lead for good after that. Ferguson was stopped just short of his sixth bracelet when his chips were all in and the deck didn't give him anything that could compete with Sebastian's two-pair. Sebastian Ruthenberg had won his first bracelet. Along with that, he won more money today than he had in any single event prior to this. Not a bad accomplishment considering the competition he was facing off against.

2008 WSOP Forecast, Day Twenty Seven: The Big, Big One

launchpoker — Wed, 25 Jun 2008 08:41:57 +0000

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Today is Day 27 of the 39th annual World Series of Poker, and it is also the Big Day. Not that Big Day - when the Main Event starts - but the other one. This is the day that the $50k World Championship H.O.R.S.E. begins, and all eyes will be on those tables. Except, that is, those over at Event 44. Not only is today the start of the big H.O.R.S.E. it is also the start of the $1,000 No Limit Holdem with Rebuys. Now, it may seem these events are worlds apart - and they are - but each is going to draw a lot of attention for different reasons. The Rebuy event is going to be pure action for the first few levels as players like Daniel Negreanu show up with $40k in their pockets ready to win a bracelet, and of course the $50k H.O.R.S.E. is the event that has the most clout among the pros. Which begs the question, where will Kid Poker play? Lucky for him Event 44 starts at noon, but even if he is doing well, will he miss the chance to get credentials by playing in Event 45, which starts at five? It almost doesn't matter, because Andy Bloch is going to win the H.O.R.S.E. event. Well, of course this is just an assumption. Bloch, as we have talked about before, is a brilliant gamesman and number cruncher, and in the very first $50k H.O.R.S.E. event Andy took second. And he can finish first this year. Yes, there are plenty of other pros who are capable of winning the event, but Andy has the experience, the youth and stamina, and the hunger: he was this close before, and our prediction stands that he will go all the way. We also predict Negreanu will spend at least $20k in rebuys this year.

2008 WSOP Forecast, Day Twenty Six: Pot Limit Omaha High Low Split 8 or Better

launchpoker — Tue, 24 Jun 2008 07:40:12 +0000

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Today is Day 26 of the 39th annual World Series of Poker, cranking down the days to the Main Event in a couple of weeks, and there is only one event kicking off today: Event 43 Pot Limit Omaha High-Low Split 8 or Better. Wait, didn't David Benyamine just win this event? Close, but no. Benyamine won the World Championship event with the $10k buy in just a day or so ago - and it was Omaha High Low Split 8 or Better, but this is a different event. The fact they have this event along with the other tells us something about the state of poker in general, and the WSOP in particular. &NBsp;There have been a number of ways the WSOP have listened to the players - mostly the pros - about improving both conditions "on the field" and the game offerings, and this seems to be one of them. In addition to more $10k events and more mixed events, we have more Omaha events than normal. This is accomplished partially by adding events, and partially by dialing back on the No Limit Holdem events that threatened to overwhelm the WSOP over the last couple of years. So who is going home early in this event, and who is going all the way? A bit early to tell but look to the Omaha pros to go deep. While one could argue that most pros would avoid a $1,500 event while they rest up or participate in the $2k and ups, there are enough pros that love Omaha to see them "slumming". Our pick for going deep - Sammy Farha.

2008 WSOP Event 32 Winner Jose Luis Velador

launchpoker — Mon, 23 Jun 2008 14:17:14 +0000

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Most of the time a World Series of Poker final table is a dramatic back and forth battle where chip leaders aren't chip leaders for very long, and the underdog has as much chance as the favorite. Event #32 was not one of these tournaments. From the moment Jose Luis Velador sat down at the final table it was sort of like watching somebody with a shot gun taking out a room full of people armed with only pop tarts and foul language. This was the sort of rare domination of the table that only happens once or twice during a WSOP season. This was a tape to tape victory for Jose who started the day with a healthy chip lead, and never relinquished the lead. Of his eight opponents Velador was personally responsible for knocking four of them out of the tournament and adding their chips to his growing stack. His eventual heads-up opponent to be was busy working on his own stack. Anthony Signore opted for winning the occasional pot though, and not going for all of an opponent's chips by getting them all in. This turned out to be a strategic mistake as he found himself at a 5 to 1 chip disadvantage against Velador when heads-up play started. While Jose is an experienced tournament player, and somebody who is familiar with what to do when he is ahead on chips, Signore was not intimidated by his opponent or the massive stack of chips. After seventeen hands of one on one play, Anthony had almost erased Jose's chip lead. During this run the all in bet had been a very effective weapon. On the final hand of the game Anthony had gone all in before the flop, and Velador called instead of folding. Signore had an A-6. Unfortunately for him Jose was holding an A-7. The flop included an Ace and a seven. This gave Jose a nearly unbeatable lead. The turn was meaningless, and the river was a six. Both players had two-pair, with Velador's sevens making the difference. The tournament was over, and Velador had his first World Series of Poker bracelet along with over $500,000 for his effort.