2007 WSOP - The Crap Shoot Theory

  Once again the main event of the World Series of Poker is coming a bit under fire for being a "crap shoot", a reference to the incredible amount of luck needed to win big in a game of craps. There is some irony to the possibility that the main event of the WSOP is a crap shoot, considering it was created to showcase the world's best poker players.  Today, July 9th, starts Day 1C, third of four day ones, and the news regarding the attendance is not good. It really isn't bad, precisely, but it isn't as good as it could have been. With anticipation in early days of outstripping last year, two days of around 1,400 players each isn't going to cut it. There is a small chance, if today and tomorrow max out at 3,000 each, that this year will just past last year, but the odds are against it.  Speaking of odds, what about this crap shoot theory? With so many players in the event (even on track for about 5,500 this year) some argue that luck has become an overwhelming factor in winning, far outpacing skill. Case in point: at one point in the day yesterday, TV talk show host Montel Williams was the chip leader.  But the fact remains that without skill, all the luck in the world will only care you so far. For a player to make it to the final table and win based solely on luck is a very unrealistic assumption. While each year since 2001 an amateur player has won the event, that doesn't mean the players were not also skilled - they had just not yet accumulated the bankroll to turn pro. Now all of them are pros.  Yes, Jamie Gold's mother and David William's mother are playing in the event, and holding their own. Is that all due to luck? With personal coaches like Williams and last year's WSOP champ, don't bet on it.