The Rule of 4

The Rule of 4


  Some people play poker by feel and instinct. Unfortunately, a lot of newer players don't have the experience to have honed their "feel" for the game, and regrettably human instincts occasionally tell us we can save the world by purchasing ridiculous little electric cars and that eating a whole bag of Oreos is a good idea. Thankfully in order to help make some of poker's more difficult decisions a little easier, somebody came up with the concept of pot odds. This is the triumph of math when instinct cannot be trusted.



  What keeps most people from using the advantage of calculating pot odds is the fact that most of us gave up on math when we were handed a degree and told that our school days were done. Well there is a quick and easy way to figure out these odds without killing some vital brain cells.



  The easy way to do this is referred to as "the rule of 4" and is done with the following easy steps. First, determine how many outs you need after the flop. So let's say you need two more cards to complete a flush in the suit of hearts. You have two in your hand, and the flop produced a third. There are 10 more hearts potentially in the deck that can help you. Multiply that number (in this case 10) by 4. This will give you the percentage of hitting one of your outs. In this case, 40%.



  After the turn, multiply the number of outs by 2. So if you got a heart on the turn, there are 9 outs still floating around out there that can turn your hand into a winner. In the case of our example, 2 x 9 is 18. You have an 18% chance of getting that last card.



  Whether 18% is the sort of thing you can live with is all up to your risk tolerance, how much is in the pot, and how much it will cost you to stay in the hand.



  Good Luck!